UN Secretary-General receives second highest rating in poll assessing world leaders

30 June 2009. College Park, MD – Kyiv —UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon receives the second-highest rating in the Poll on Global Leaders conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org among 20 nations of the world.  On average his ratings lean positive (40% to 35%) and 11 nations express confidence, seven do not, and two are divided. Views are especially positive in Asia and Africa.  Only in the US and in some nations in the Middle East ( Egypt, the Palestinian territories, and Turkey) does a majority express low confidence. 

US President Barack Obama has the confidence of many publics around the world—inspiring far more confidence than any other world political leader according to a new poll of 20 nations by WorldPublicOpinion.org .A year ago, President Bush was one of the least trusted leaders in the world.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin now have the most negative confidence ratings around the world. On average across all nations about half have little or no confidence that they will “do the right thing regarding world affairs” while just a third or less do have confidence.

WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted the poll of 19,224 respondents in nations that comprise 62 percent of the world's population. This includes most of the largest nations—China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia—as  well as Mexico, Germany, Great Britain, France, Poland, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Kenya, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the Palestinian territories, and South Korea. Publics were also polled in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. The margins of error range from +/-3 to 4 percent.

WorldPublicOpinion.org, a collaborative research project involving research centers from around the world, is managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.  The survey was conducted between April 4 and June 12, 2009, prior to Obama’s speech in Cairo but subsequent to his Ankara speech.

An average of 61 percent express a lot or some confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs, across the nineteen nations polled (excluding the US). Thirty-one percent say they have not too much or no confidence at all.  In 13 nations, a majority or plurality has confidence in Obama; in five nations they do not; one nation is divided.  A majority of the American public (70%) also expresses confidence in Obama in world affairs.

No other leader has the confidence of more than an average of 40 percent across the publics polled. For most leaders, more express a lack of confidence than express confidence.

“At this moment Obama occupies a unique position in the eyes of the world,” observes Stephen J. Weber of WorldPublicOpinion.org.  “His communication skills and the change he represents create an open door for him to engage people around the world.”      

President Ahmadinejad has the confidence of an average of only 28 percent across the 20 nations, while 49 percent do not have confidence in the Iranian leader.  Fourteen nations have a negative view, led by the US (84%)  Germany (81%), France (79%), and South Korea (67%).  The public in six nations express confidence in Ahmadinejad led by two majority-Muslim nations:Pakistan (75%) and the Palestinian territories (57%).  However, other majority-Muslim nations express a lack of confidence, including Iraq (56%), Azerbaijan (59%), Egypt (57%), and Turkey (48%).  Indians also lean positive (42 to 30%) about Ahmadinejad.

Russian Prime Minister Putin has the confidence of publics in five nations (the lowest of any leader tested), but in 14 the public has little confidence.   On average across 19 nations other than Russia, 34 percent of the public expresses confidence and 50 percent do not. Critics of Putin include France (78% little confidence), Poland (76%), Germany (72%), and the US (69%) as well as all of the nations of the Middle East that were polled. However, Mr. Putin does elicit confidence in the world’s two largest nations, China (64%) and India (65%). The public in Ukraine, where the current West-leaning President Yushchenko has had tense relations with the Kremlin, also has confidence in Putin (57 %); notably, more Ukrainians express confidence Putin than in President Obama (35%).  Russians themselves have confidence in their Prime Minister by a very large majority (82%).

Public confidence in President Hu Jintao of China presents a mixed picture around the globe. In most nations in the West—including Europe, the US and Mexico—President  Hu receives low confidence scores. Low scores are also common in the Middle East including in Turkey, the Palestinian territories, and Iraq.  However, in Asia, the publics in most nations express confidence in the Chinese leader such as in Pakistan (80%), India (50%) and in South Korea (by a narrow margin, 51% to 47%). Overall, seven nations express confidence in President Hu, 10 lack confidence, and two divided.  On average across the nations polled, excluding China, 32 percent have confidence in him and 44 percent do not. There are also large majorities reporting confidence in President Hu in separate surveys that were conducted in Taiwan (60%), Hong Kong (94%), and Macau (92%). “In his own backyard, President Hu seems to be using soft power very effectively,” notes Stephen Weber.

Among the national leaders studied in this poll, Chancellor Merkel has the second-highest rating – on average 40 percent express confidence in her, while 38 percent do not.  Nine nations have positive views, but eight show little confidence, and two are divided. Most nations in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe report confidence in Merkel, but most majority-Muslim nations do not.

President Sarkozy of France has somewhat lower confidence ratings than his European compatriots, but has shown the most improvement– from 30 percent confidence in 2008 to 34 percent in 2009 across 14 trended nations.  During the second half of 2008, France occupied the Presidency of the European Union. This platform may have helped his confidence ratings increase in the US, Great Britain, Ukraine, Nigeria, and India. There is, nonetheless, a robust 45 percent of the public polled that does not have confidence in him.
The Chinese public, however, expresses sharply lower confidence in Sarkozy in 2009 (23%) than in 2008 (42%).  This fall in confidence was not evident for other Western leaders.  The protests in France in April 2008 related to the Olympic torch and Tibet policy, and Mr. Sarkozy’s threat to boycott the Beijing Olympics seems to have soured the Chinese public.

Prime Minister Brown has a profile similar to Chancellor Merkel, though with slightly lower scores overall.  His global confidence average is 36 percent positive and 45 percent negative, and eight nations express confidence in him.  Ten nations do not express confidence, notably all majority-Muslim nations polled except Azerbaijan, as well as France, Poland, Russia and Mexico.  
For more information, please visit: www.worldpublicopinion.org